The perceived probability of job loss and future labour market outcomes

Longitudinal survey data are used to test the degree to which worker expectations of future job loss are correlated with changes in labour market status. Three major findings are reported. First, perceived probabilities of expected job loss are only weakly related to both exogenous job separations and subsequent transitions to unemployment and inactivity. Second, while fears of job loss tend to persist across time and job spells, they do so at a highly diminishing rate. Third, quit intentions are strongly correlated with both voluntary separations and transitions to alternative employment, and do not diminish greatly across successive employment spells.     

Knowledge diversity and coordination: The effect of intrafirm inventor task networks on absorption speed

Research Summary: We combine the absorptive capacity and social network theory approaches to predict how intrafirm “whole” network characteristics affect the firm's speed of absorption of external knowledge to produce inventions. We start from the widely accepted view that distant, externally‐developed knowledge is difficult to absorb into the focal firm's own knowledge production. We suggest that high levels of intrafirm inventor task network diversity and task network density are essential for a diversity of knowledge inputs and coordinated actions regarding knowledge transfer, which in turn, reduces problems related to the absorption of knowledge—especially in the case of knowledge that is distant from the focal firm. The results of an event history study of 113 pharmaceutical firms that engaged in technology in‐licensing from 1986 to 2003 provide general support for our hypotheses. Managerial Summary: Firms keen to keep up with an uncertain and ever‐changing industry environment, can benefit from the speedy introduction of inventions. We examine how firms absorb licensed‐in technologies to nurture the rapid development of own related inventions. We show that a firm's absorption speed depends on the characteristics of the internal collaboration networks among the firm's inventor employees. More specifically, technologically diverse and well‐connected inventor networks improve the firm's ability to absorb external technologies quickly. This applies especially to externally acquired technologies that are unfamiliar to the firm. Depending on the distance of the acquired technology from the focal firm combined with speed‐inducing inventor network characteristics, our estimates suggest that firms can reduce the time needed for absorption by several months.     

ECB Monetary Policy Surprises: Identification Through Cojumps in Interest Rates

This paper proposes a new econometric approach to disentangle two distinct response patterns of the yield curve to monetary policy announcements. Based on cojumps in intraday tick data of short‐ and long‐term interest rate futures, we develop a day‐wise test that detects the occurrence of a significant policy surprise and identifies the market perceived source of the surprise. The new test is applied to 133 policy announcements of the European Central Bank (ECB) in the period from 2001 to 2012. Our main findings indicate a good predictability of ECB policy decisions and remarkably stable perceptions about the ECB's policy preferences. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Transaction taxes, greed and risk aversion in an agent-based financial market model

Recent agent-based financial market models came to the result that taxing financial transactions does not per se increase financial stability and that the response of volatility and misalignments to rising tax rates seem to be u-shaped. Moreover, greed and the risk appetite of traders are often blamed for financial instability and there is no evidence how greed and risk aversion affect the effectiveness of regulations in financial markets. We aim to add to this gap in the literature by analyzing how the effectiveness of transaction taxes depend on different behavioral patterns within an agent-based framework. Our simulations indicate that a tax rate of 0.1% demarcates the stabilizing tax regime from the destabilizing one. We figure out that transaction taxes are less effective, either when chartists trade more aggressively, fundamentalists trade less aggressively, agents switch more frequently between trading strategies or only have short memory in their fitness measures. Lower risk aversion of agents, however, makes higher tax rates more effective as indicated by a flatter volatility response curve. We conclude that additional regulations should concentrate on the traders’ responsibilities for their risk-exposure.     

Institutionelle Unabhängigkeit als Freiheit vom Recht?

Die politische Unabh?ngigkeit der Europ?ischen Zentralbank wurde in den entsprechenden Vertr?gen gesichert. Wie sieht es aber mit ihrer Rechtsbindung aus? Wer kann die EZB vor Gericht aufgrund von Pfl ichtverletzungen verklagen und ist dies grunds?tzlich überhaupt m?glich? Diesen Fragen geht der Autor hier nach. Er widmet den Beitrag Ernst-Joachim Mestm?cker zu seinem 85. Geburtstag am 25. September.     

Ökonomische Bewertung des Repowering von Onshore-Windenergieanlagen in Deutschland

Wind power takes a leading role among the renewable energy sources. Whereas in offshore wind power utilization large technical challenges still need to be tackled for commercial exploitation, the replacement of obsolete plants (repowering) in the onshore sector provides an interesting alternative. This paper first provides an overview of the technical, legal and social development concerning wind power utilization in general, and repowering in particular, in Germany. In a next step, by means of model-based analysis, the technical potential for wind power by means of repowering is determined. The theoretical potential is valuated against social aspects. Due to the large heterogeneity of candidate sites for repowering, general potential studies are not suitable for concrete investment decisions. Instead, a detailed economic feasibility study is required. In our study, we performed scenario analysis, also taking into account the repowering-specific risks. The parameter values varied are those for the quality of the site, the size of the wind park, and the age of the wind turbines to be replaced. Finally, we discuss the results and provide an outlook on the development of repowering in light of the novelized EEG. We find that, until now, the repowering potential could not be fully exploited. An intensified realization of repowering projects in the coming years can be expected, due to the technical potential, simplifications in the commissioning process, rising acceptance on the side of the communities due to changes in the tax legislation and, above all, thanks to the incentives for almost all onshore wind parks.     

Product Market Competition,Managerial Incentives and Firm Valuation

This paper contributes to the very small empirical literature on the effects of competition on managerial incentive schemes. Based on a theoretical model that incorporates both strategic interaction between firms and a principal agent relationship, we analyse the relationship between product market competition, incentive schemes and firm valuation. The model predicts a nonlinear relationship between the intensity of product market competition and the strength of managerial incentives. We test the implications of our model empirically based on a unique and hand‐collected dataset comprising over 600 observations on 200 Swiss firms over the 2002–2005 period. Our results suggest that, consistent with the implications of our model, the relation between product market competition and managerial intensive schemes is convex indicating that above a certain level of intensity in product market competition, the marginal effect of competition on the strength of the incentive schemes increases in the level of competition. Moreover, competition is associated with lower firm values. These results are robust to accounting for a potential endogeneity of managerial incentives and firm value in a simultaneous equations framework.     

Ist mehr Innovativität im Marketing besser? Achtung,nicht-lineare Effekte!

Wie innovativ sollten Unternehmen ihr Marketing gestalten? Ist mehr Innovativit?t immer sinnvoll? Antworten auf diese Fragen gibt dieser Beitrag. Ausgew?hlte Fallstudien und eine empirische Studie belegen, dass zus?tzliche Innovationsanstrengungen ab einem bestimmten Ma? negativ wirken k?nnen.